Diesel Engines industry forecasts to 2011 and 2016
Released on = April 21, 2007, 12:06 am
Press Release Author = Bharat Book Bureau
Industry = Marketing
Press Release Summary = US diesel engine demand to slow after 2006 pre-buy
With growth reflecting an artificially high 2006 base year, US demand for diesel engines and related aftermarket parts will increase 1.1 percent annually through 2011 to $16.7 billion. Demand for parts and non-motor vehicle engines will help offset lower demand for motor vehicle engines.
Press Release Body = Diesel Engines industry forecasts to 2011 & 2016
US diesel engine demand to slow after 2006 pre-buy
With growth reflecting an artificially high 2006 base year, US demand for diesel engines and related aftermarket parts will increase 1.1 percent annually through 2011 to $16.7 billion. Demand for parts and non-motor vehicle engines will help offset lower demand for motor vehicle engines. Demand will not match peak 2006 levels in the key heavy-duty truck diesel engine market, which resulted from fleets buying trucks ahead of 2007 emissions regulation changes. These changes will add both significant cost and uncertainty, since first-year engines using new technologies may not be as robust in terms of reliability and durability. Although faring better than heavyduty truck engines, off-highway diesel engines will likely experience a slowing of demand through 2011, as new Tier-4 emissions regulations phase in between 2008 and 2015. Particulate matter and oxides of nitrogen emissions are mandated to be further reduced by about 90 percent, which will likely be achieved through the use of control technologies similar to those required by the heavy-truck standards, such as advanced exhaust gas after-treatment. The added expense and risk will impact year-on-year demand for these engines, thereby distorting the market going forward.
Heavy trucks to remain largest diesel engine market
Heavy-duty trucks will remain the largest overall market for diesel engines, despite the decline projected for this segment through 2011. Light-duty trucks will continue to be the second-largest motor vehicle market and experience rapid growth, with the other motor vehicle market -- which includes specialty vehicles -- posting strong gains as well. The current renewed interest in fuel costs has caused more consumers to consider light vehicle diesels. The modern diesel now accounts for fully half of all car sales in Western Europe and is increasingly being considered for US use. Diesel demand in the passenger car market -- long dormant in the US market -- is expected to be strong, and to expand rapidly from a very small base. These new engines offer significantly improved performance and less noise, vibration and harshness compared to former engines used in the US market, which should boost consumer interest. Additionally, technological innovations, many of which will be prompted by federally mandated emissions control regulations, will spur demand for new, cleanerburning diesel engines and components at both the original equipment manufacturing and aftermarket levels in the motor vehicle and off-highway segments.
Study coverage
Diesel Engines, a new Freedonia industry study, is priced at $4400. It presents historical demand data for 1996, 2001 and 2006 as well as forecasts to 2011 and 2016 by diesel engine product (e.g., motor vehicle, non-motor vehicle), material, and market (e.g., trucks, buses, cars, off-highway). The study also considers market environment factors, reviews technology, evaluates market share and profiles 35 industry competitors including Caterpillar, Cummins, DaimlerChrysler, Delphi, Navistar and Volvo.
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